Thursday, April 22, 2010

FUEL FOR THE FIRE

Still no decision on the stock market as it failed to make new highs yesterday. Until it either drops below Monday's low or breaks out to new highs we're locked in no man's land.

We have the same predicament going on with the dollar. This is the 21st week of the rally. Intermediate cycles usually don't last much longer than 20 weeks on average. So not only has the stock market stretched really long but so is the intermediate dollar cycle.

I think it's safe to say the last daily cycle bottomed at critical long term support (80). If the current daily cycle rolls over before making a new high and moves below 80 I think we would have our fuel for a runaway move in all asset classes.


The dollar is so late in the intermediate cycle that it could top (if it hasn't already) at any time. We do have a potential bear flag forming which if it breaks lower would also form a potential head & shoulders top.

Since I don't think the market will correct at the same time the dollar is falling, any stock market correction would also require a strongly rising dollar. That's tough to bet on 21 weeks into an intermediate cycle.

2 comments:

  1. Toby, do you know anything about Jim Sinclair's call for a "stratospheric takeoff" in gold in few days? Thanks for your input.

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  2. I’m doing an article that should be published tomorrow on the possible price explosion in all assets.

    ReplyDelete