Tuesday, March 16, 2010

TIME TO BE AN OBSERVER

Folks there are times when the right thing to do is to just sit and watch. This is one of those times. We really have no edge at all in the gold market right now. Gold is moving down into the daily cycle low and I expect that decline to be exacerbated when the stock market corrects. So there’s no call to try and pick a bottom at this time.

We still lack two confirmations that this is a C-wave continuation, so there's no need to buy this dip yet, epecially if this does turn out to be a D-wave as there will be a lower low by the time the next intermediate cycle bottom arrives.

Now if gold can hold above the prior dip at $1087 it would be a big plus as it would keep the pattern of higher short term highs and higher short term lows intact.


I'm not terribly confident that will happen though as the stock market hasn't corrected yet. When it does it's probably going to add downside pressure to gold and miners.

On the plus side the right translated nature of this daily cycle swings the odds heavily in favor of gold holding above the $1044 low. So once we do put in the cycle bottom gold will have another shot at taking out the critical $1161 level.

It doesn’t make sense to buy the stock market this deep into the daily cycle especially with the negative divergences and money flows popping up (more on that in last night's update). It’s safest to just sit and wait for the correction to unfold and then buy into the dip.

Shorting is probably out of the question as this is one of the most powerful bull markets in history. And it should be, with all the liquidity that’s been thrown at it. The surprises continue to come on the upside. So you are just asking to get kicked in the teeth if you are shorting anything right now.

Folks I think it's time to step back and be a spectator for a while.

2 comments:

  1. I was wondering why this blog seemed so similar in content/tone/charts to the Smart Money Tracker blog...apparently you two are part of the same LLC. Good information though and I do agree this rally probably has a little more to go until every last person is sucked in and then we will be headed back down.

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  2. Ok, so now I'm confused. Don't you say THE DAY AFTER THIS POST, that we're about to kick off a multi-month runaway market, and that there are fortunes to be made on the long side?

    Buy assets at this juncture, or stay on the sidelines? Which is it?

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